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You know, I get a bit tired of hearing all sorts of reasons why the Kindle isn't like the iPod. That it's not the breakthrough device. That we're going to have to wait longer before the real device comes out that turns the market around, and makes everyone want one.
Sorry, but, that's just crap.
Why?
Because you're all misremembering the iPod. No really. I'm telling you, you don't remember when he iPod first came out. How much did the first iPod cost when it hit the market? Any idea? How about $399. Look familiar? Yeah, that's right, the first iPod cost the same as the Kindle when it launched. Yes really. Want to know something else? It wasn't nearly as slick as the current models of iPods. It wasn't even as slick as the version of the iPod that just about everyone remembers as the first iPod, but wasn't.
Now, how many iPods do you think were sold in that first year? Really take a guess. Ready? Okay: 376,000. Yeah, that's it. No, the device didn't come online, and then suddenly there were millions of little iPods out in the hands of people. Nope. Didn't happen. In fact, they didn't cross the 1 million units sold mark until the eighth quarter! (Fourth quarter of the second year the devices were available.) What that means is, that you probably don't remember the first iPod that hit the market. In fact, I would say that most of us, didn't see/experience an iPod until the third generation device or later. It's real easy to tell, if you haven't seen a device that has protruding buttons that come off the front of the faceplate, then you couldn't possibly have seen either a first or second generation iPod. They had physical buttons on them. The third generation device came out, and that's when the advertising really picked up, and you had a device with touch sensitive controls. Everything most people know about the device, starts from that time frame or later, and that's also when the sales per quarter begin to jump. Further, they didn't cross the million units sold per quarter mark until the fourth quarter of the third year into production. Of course, by the next quarter, they were selling at least 4 million or more units per quarter, which means we can safely assume that they are selling a million of these devices a month. Easy. Currently, they are probably hitting near 3 million a month, with up ticks during the holiday season.
Now, I have no idea what percentage of units sold go into replacing old units. IE, if my old iPod now stinks, and I want a new one with feature X, or is smaller, lighter, more capacity, cooler color option, whatever, I go out and buy a new one. The non-broken ones probably get recycled via gifting them to others. (Like to your spouse that doesn't have one, or to your kids if they don't yet have them, or to your parents, whichever.) But some portion of the units do just disappear into the ether, never to return, and some portion stay in productive use. I think it's safe to assume that no more than 1/3 of the units sold have been permanently retired, and thus we're at a point where there are probably 100 million iPods out there in use today. The iPod came out in October of 2001, and by October 2004, three years later, and on its fourth generation of device, it dominated the market space with something above 70% total market share, and hasn't let go. So it took three years. That's also about the time where you see the huge jump in sales to be more than a million units per quarter into the million units per month range. I don't think that's a coincidence. You'll also note that it was with that fourth generation of device, that the current seamlessly slick version of the iPod that we all DO remember is there. It's from that fourth generation on that you get that one sweet simple interface, just a little multipurpose disk touchpad that runs it all.
So, okay what's the point? People keep wanting to compare the Kindle to the iPod, and say: see, it doesn't match up. It can't ever be that popular or good. The sales aren't enough. Or the price is too high. They say the the look is a bit clunky. The interface isn't perfect. All these things are true about the iPod's first generation device too. We're 6+ years into the iPod generation, but yet people don't really remember where the original came from, and how much effort, work, and improvements Apple put into the device to make it the market leader. I'm sorry to report that the device did not spring forth fully formed from Steve Job's forehead. It started with that one, now classic, device, and built over years to the point where every kid on the block wants one. So far, if the unofficial numbers are to be believed, it seems as if the Kindle is poised to follow down this same path. Now, is reading books as cool as listening to music? I think so, but I'm a geek who loves reading. Of course to be the break out device in its own sphere, the Kindle doesn't have to sell as many units as the iPod has. But the fact that it appears to be following in the same general trend sure doesn't hurt.
This is not a slam against the iPod. I see nothing wrong with the device or its history. But I think people have a rather distorted memory of the success of that little gem, and that distorted view discounts the amount of time, energy, and effort that Apple put in to making the brand a success. The current costs, value, and ubiquity of said device didn't show up over night, but was accomplished in the long haul. Trying to compare the first few months of a new device, against the current popularity, or even the vaguely remembered apparent boom of the initial iPod is poorly done by those who want to decry that the ebook reader's time has not yet arrived.
Sorry, but, that's just crap.
Why?
Because you're all misremembering the iPod. No really. I'm telling you, you don't remember when he iPod first came out. How much did the first iPod cost when it hit the market? Any idea? How about $399. Look familiar? Yeah, that's right, the first iPod cost the same as the Kindle when it launched. Yes really. Want to know something else? It wasn't nearly as slick as the current models of iPods. It wasn't even as slick as the version of the iPod that just about everyone remembers as the first iPod, but wasn't.
Now, how many iPods do you think were sold in that first year? Really take a guess. Ready? Okay: 376,000. Yeah, that's it. No, the device didn't come online, and then suddenly there were millions of little iPods out in the hands of people. Nope. Didn't happen. In fact, they didn't cross the 1 million units sold mark until the eighth quarter! (Fourth quarter of the second year the devices were available.) What that means is, that you probably don't remember the first iPod that hit the market. In fact, I would say that most of us, didn't see/experience an iPod until the third generation device or later. It's real easy to tell, if you haven't seen a device that has protruding buttons that come off the front of the faceplate, then you couldn't possibly have seen either a first or second generation iPod. They had physical buttons on them. The third generation device came out, and that's when the advertising really picked up, and you had a device with touch sensitive controls. Everything most people know about the device, starts from that time frame or later, and that's also when the sales per quarter begin to jump. Further, they didn't cross the million units sold per quarter mark until the fourth quarter of the third year into production. Of course, by the next quarter, they were selling at least 4 million or more units per quarter, which means we can safely assume that they are selling a million of these devices a month. Easy. Currently, they are probably hitting near 3 million a month, with up ticks during the holiday season.
Now, I have no idea what percentage of units sold go into replacing old units. IE, if my old iPod now stinks, and I want a new one with feature X, or is smaller, lighter, more capacity, cooler color option, whatever, I go out and buy a new one. The non-broken ones probably get recycled via gifting them to others. (Like to your spouse that doesn't have one, or to your kids if they don't yet have them, or to your parents, whichever.) But some portion of the units do just disappear into the ether, never to return, and some portion stay in productive use. I think it's safe to assume that no more than 1/3 of the units sold have been permanently retired, and thus we're at a point where there are probably 100 million iPods out there in use today. The iPod came out in October of 2001, and by October 2004, three years later, and on its fourth generation of device, it dominated the market space with something above 70% total market share, and hasn't let go. So it took three years. That's also about the time where you see the huge jump in sales to be more than a million units per quarter into the million units per month range. I don't think that's a coincidence. You'll also note that it was with that fourth generation of device, that the current seamlessly slick version of the iPod that we all DO remember is there. It's from that fourth generation on that you get that one sweet simple interface, just a little multipurpose disk touchpad that runs it all.
So, okay what's the point? People keep wanting to compare the Kindle to the iPod, and say: see, it doesn't match up. It can't ever be that popular or good. The sales aren't enough. Or the price is too high. They say the the look is a bit clunky. The interface isn't perfect. All these things are true about the iPod's first generation device too. We're 6+ years into the iPod generation, but yet people don't really remember where the original came from, and how much effort, work, and improvements Apple put into the device to make it the market leader. I'm sorry to report that the device did not spring forth fully formed from Steve Job's forehead. It started with that one, now classic, device, and built over years to the point where every kid on the block wants one. So far, if the unofficial numbers are to be believed, it seems as if the Kindle is poised to follow down this same path. Now, is reading books as cool as listening to music? I think so, but I'm a geek who loves reading. Of course to be the break out device in its own sphere, the Kindle doesn't have to sell as many units as the iPod has. But the fact that it appears to be following in the same general trend sure doesn't hurt.
This is not a slam against the iPod. I see nothing wrong with the device or its history. But I think people have a rather distorted memory of the success of that little gem, and that distorted view discounts the amount of time, energy, and effort that Apple put in to making the brand a success. The current costs, value, and ubiquity of said device didn't show up over night, but was accomplished in the long haul. Trying to compare the first few months of a new device, against the current popularity, or even the vaguely remembered apparent boom of the initial iPod is poorly done by those who want to decry that the ebook reader's time has not yet arrived.
From: (Anonymous)
Um...
-kb
Re: Um...
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